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What to do when machines do everything

September 28, 2020
Posted in tecnologia
September 28, 2020 Conecta Software
  • The era of artificial intelligence (AI) offers many development possibilities for innovation-oriented companies.
  • Some jobs will disappear as many new and better ones emerge: by 2025, automation will cost the G7 countries some 173 million jobs.
  • Companies incorporating technology can benefit from the fourth industrial revolution.
  • The temporary decline in the technology economy after the dot-com crash belies the growing digital rise, as data-rich, multidisciplinary companies take advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) systems.
  • Master the "three emes": raw materials, business models and new technology machines. Today's intelligence systems use "narrow", not general forms of AI.
  • The data-goods surpass all the old industrial resources, such as oil, coal or electricity.
  • Let's apply the five AHMAD strategies for using the new machines.
  • These are: Automation; implement wireless technology (Halo) to products to generate codes; improve AI work; use Abundance; dedicate resources to dynamic research and Discovery.
  • Managed objectively, intelligent machines improve, not supplant, the best human qualities.

Summary

Artificial Intelligence applied to the enterprise

The development potential of the artificial intelligence (AI) is attracting media attention and promises major changes in business, education, health, energy, manufacturing and other areas. AI is likely to be impacting our industry already; and it will soon enable new virtual worlds in which people will work and play. As with the other industrial revolutions, AI heralds a major transformation that will be disruptive, followed by increased economic and social prosperity. To benefit from the new revolution, we must act as soon as possible to apply the power of automation to our company.

The new machine

Smart technology, like Siri, Nest and Alexa, can already improve our home and workplace. Many of their apps and digital tools use self-learning AI systems; their increasing complexity makes possible diagnostics, vehicles, value analysis and legal inquiries that surpass human beings and even gamers, such as AlphaGo from Google. The new machines - intelligence systems that enable the new industrial revolution - will transform businesses into super-knowledgeable, know-it-all companies. You're in for a fast transition from the fun digital, like Twitter y Facebookto the digital important. Facebook, AmazonNetflix and Google represent the digital vanguard before the big data do it.

Paralysis, boom and revolution

At the individual and business level, we can be overwhelmed by relentless global competition, the fall of new companies, the inequality of wealth and the loss of privacy. Today's zone of paralysis is an ongoing phase: the dot-com crash fuels a historical pattern of major technological change and heralds the digital rise, a devastation of some 25 years in which extreme ideas will take centre stage. A study by Oxford University indicates that, by 2025, the automation will cause some 173 million job losses for G7 countries, although a more reasonable analytical consensus suggests that it will be only 12% of the total. The new machine-provided jobs - a product of the revolution generated by automation and the improvement and creation of new jobs - will compensate for the loss, because manual and skilled work lend themselves to different types of automation, and the new technology will destroy and create jobs, as it tends to automate specific tasks - starting with the routine and tedious ones - but not all jobs.

"The AI is not coming; it's already here. The point of this book is to show you that there are things-many things-that we can and should do when machines do everything.

Each of the three previous industrial revolutions - with the destruction of power looms by the Luddites of the 17th century, the loss of agricultural employment and the reduction in the assembly line - caused further disruption. In the aftermath of those cataclysms, economist Carlota Perez saw a historical pattern of wealth bubbling up in what she called the golden ages. Today's stagnation follows an unstable explosion of computers and Internet innovation at the tipping point of a dramatic S-curve in GDP over time. Three main factors will drive the future boom: the 'ubitechnology' or presence of technology in everything; the fact that today's technology is much lower than that of 2030; and mass digitalization, with which companies will dominate the three emes: raw materials, new machines and business models.

"In the new economy, we will witness the expansion of what is possible and move from the machines that make to those that seem to learn and think.

The fear of chaotic unemployment returns with each new type of automation, but the arrival of the new machine is not abrupt: AI is introduced slowly and accelerates after a turning point. In the short term, jobs change, but they don't disappear: as work done by heart disappears, employees look for more lucrative activities, which increases their efficiency and improves their performance. The history of social progress shows again and again that the new abundance that innovation generates improves the availability of valuable employment and the quality of life, because it makes quality goods and services affordable.

The three AI groups

YouTube and Uber use comprehensive intelligent systems that involve hardwaresoftwareThe AI is of the "narrow" -or weak- category. The so-called "general" - or "strong" - AI equals the flexible intelligence of human beings. For now, it is a vision of the future, like singularity or an out-of-control apocalyptic super AI; and, for now, for profitability, a narrow vision is better. Intelligence systems differ from recording systems, which use machine learning, and that exponentially increases processing power and large masses of data. These systems, with their complex logical processes and softwareThe new technologies have yet to attract people, so their interface must include accessible and seamless interaction. A service like Netflix gets data points from the information it gathers about its users and their offerings, processes them in the background, and uses them to generate a seamless user experience. Such systems need scalable intelligence, openness (through application programming interfaces, or APIsHuman intervention, narrow AI, and adaptability The development of the new information systems is easy and your company can use its own versions.

The data, a raw material that exceeds oil in value

Today, the main raw material is data: its value as a good exceeds that of all previous ones: the oil boom transformed society, as will the data boom. The advantages of these over oil include: low-cost procurement, cheap distribution, unlimited supply, patentability and exponential nature; and, like oil, they flow better through an efficiently managed supply chain. Use the tools and processes of business analytics to extract and refine the exploitable meaning of their information. Make every inedible product "smart": adding instrumental means to your products is cheap and easy and people will benefit. Large-scale companies with a lot of experience tend to have better instrumentation assets than new software can offer. We may have that early advantage now, but, if we lose time, it will evaporate. We must give priority to being smart: go where the data takes you.

The AHMAD strategy

When Silicon Valley's innovations disrupt its industry - and they will - can its products and services continue to profit at a cruelly reduced "Google price"? To survive, companies must automate their processes. Determine how you can update your business model to meet that challenge. Look for hybrid models, in which companies digitize some processes and maintain manual ones. The unwary are vulnerable to several pitfalls: they follow the superficial path of digitizing, rather than going digital, going to extremes with the digital or denying its impact. To benefit from the new machine, use AHMAD's strategy: Automate by simplifying processes with AI and robot programs; put a Halo on your products and resources to generate code; enhance human efforts with artificial intelligence; encourage Abundance by making your offerings cheap, abundant and competitive; and pursue Discovery by applying AI to make your R&D more dynamic.

Creative destruction and automation

Automation already affects your banking operations, holiday bookings, etc. Increasingly, automation affects office workers and contributes to the fall of up to 60% in operating costs. In times of creative destruction driven by automation, your company can pay a high price for delays. The radical change that affected journalism - robots now write the news - already affects entire industries. Few outside of those fields realize the impact.

"Will the AI automate some positions? Yes, of course, but more importantly, they will be improved and, in time, millions more will be discovered, which will boost future employment.

You can discreetly automate office functions such as human resources and administration. Let's apply the 25%-25% rule to set priorities: look for 25% cost reduction by 25% productivity increase and specific processes to automate them. You may have to overcome the opposition of the wall of top managers, experienced middle managers approaching retirement: overcome it; and introduce at least one automatic process that eliminates a manual one. Start out discreetly, but pursue clear goals. Give priority to eliminating bottlenecks; prototype, test, analyze, and repeat. Automation is the starting point, but your goal is to revolutionize production.

Significant data haloes

Digital technology allows you to put a "code halo" on everything to create your "digital twin" connected to collect information. You will see this trend, for example, in vehicles, insurance companies, sportswear and machinery. Companies like Toyota, Boeing and Philips include intelligence in their products that generates codes; they install always-on connections and, in the end, the generated code is more important than the product with the halo. The know-it-all company never stops collecting and analyzing data. We can add instrumentation to your fleet and supply chain to gather information about your offices and your managers. Source data experts can turn raw data into value. Let the code inspire your business model and give you the data to improve your customers' experience.

Increasing human potential with AI

Although many people are used to systems like GPS, they hardly notice that the technology is improving it personally. Over time, most will choose doctors, lawyers and teachers who are "enhanced" by technology. AI programs, like Microsoft's Cortana, improve their performance on the job; and surgical programs, like da Vinci, improve surgeons. We can upgrade your company's ability to improve its performance. Although Google's AlphaGo program beat go champion Lee Sedol, he learned radical new moves from AI. Automation improves humans, and vice versa. Freed from routine tasks, humans think big and empathize more, which customers appreciate very much.

Phenomenal abundance

Abundance occurs when prices fall sharply, which increases demand. The efficiency generated by technology that crushed prices led to an abundance of cars, clothes, travel, refrigerators and so on. Intelligent systems achieve such efficiency in both the digital and physical fields that they still reflect the relentlessness of Moore's law: now, the dual processor power of computers affects all industries. Keep an eye on the competition from new companies; gather a focus group of young employees and ask them which technology-intensive product could destroy your business. Adopt the small store mentality: know your customers and customize for them; use the new machine to reduce prices and generate wealth and prosperity.

The Edwin Budding Effect

Their R&D findings are gaining a new dimension with the help of AI, but they still need your participation. By way of analogy, think of the hand pruner, invented by Edwin Budding in 1827: when that machine replaced the tiresome scythe for clearing fields, it allowed more space to be cleared and, today, a worldwide sports industry of US$620 billion. What new pruner will your company invent?

"Apple's lesson is that doing beautiful 'things' is not an esoteric exercise for those who have nothing better to do, but the priority task on our to-do list.

To apply the digitisationFollow the incremental approach kaizen (change for the better). Much of the R&D won't make it, but the successes could more than make up for it. Smart companies protect their bets: Toyota, for example, still makes conventional cars, despite its investment in driverless cars. In R&D, the new machine helps, for example, with processes, frugality and sustainability; and it repeats quickly. Ray Kurzweil's law of profit acceleration describes the exponential rate of profit with leveraged AI: block chain technology, for example, may be a new mainstream transactional paradigm.

"Since the introduction of alternating current, we've used the most powerful innovations to share cat videos, chat with Aunt Alicia and rant against politics on Twitter.

Will AI threaten humanity with dystopia, as Stephen Hawking feared, or will it deify it as utopia, as Ray Kurzweil predicts? AI pragmatists advance with data as their raw material, intelligence systems as their machines, and datacentric monetization as their business model.

About the authors

Malcolm FrankPaul Roehrig y Ben Pring work for Cognizant Technology Solutions and its Center for the Future of Work, which Roehrig founded and Pring directs. Frank is executive vice president of Cognizant and Roehrig is vice president of Cognizant Digital. They also co-authored Code Halos: How the Digital Lives of People, Things, and Organizations Are Changing the Rules of Business.

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